What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector (Building Materials) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMLM

MLM

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.Basic Materials / Building MaterialsINTACT

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc., a natural resource-based building materials company, supplies aggregates and heavy-side building materials to the construction industry in the United States and internationally. It operates through East Group and West Group segments. The company offers crushed stone, sand, and gravel products; ready mixed concrete and asphalt; and paving products and services for use in the infrastructure projects, and nonresidential and residential construction projects, as well as in the railroad, agricultural, utility, and environmental industries. It also produces magnesia-based chemicals products, and dolomitic lime primarily to customers for steel production and soil stabilization. Its chemical products are used in flame retardants, wastewater treatment, pulp and paper production, and other applications. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Share Price

$509.96

52W: $491.62 - $710.97

DCF Fair Value

$106.42

-379.2% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

33.2x

ROIC

15.2%

Operating Margin

20.2%

FCF Yield

1.6%

Debt / Equity

0.55x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.17

Market Cap

$36.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($106.42)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$106.42

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$79.82

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($106.42) 25% MOS Buy Target ($79.82) Revised Graham ($334.13) Graham Number ($257.94)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$509.96

DCF Fair Value

$106.65

-378.2% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$593M

$100M$593M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)10.1%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$6,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$5.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$8.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$13.8B

Implied Equity Value

$7.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$653	$719	$791	$871	$959	$1,003	$1,048	$1,095	$1,144	$1,196
Present Value (PV)	$599	$605	$611	$617	$624	$598	$573	$549	$527	$505

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-97.7% Premium

$257.94

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $15.38BVPS: $192.27

Revised Graham Formula-52.6% Premium

$334.13

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.6% Yield

$7.93 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.6BYield: 1.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

20.5% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $509.96, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 20.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MLM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 20.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $106.42 per share compared to its current market price of $509.96. This represents an estimated 379.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $257.94.