MCO
Moody's CorporationFinancial Services / Financial Data & Stock ExchangesINTACTMoody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Service (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. This segment also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economic data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and cloud-based SaaS subscription solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know-your-customer workflows. The MIS segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, including corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. It also provides ratings, investment research, compliance and third-party risk, supplier risk, trade credit, business intelligence sales and marketing, financial and regulatory reporting, balance sheet management, capital management, credit portfolio management, and model risk and governance solutions; Maxsight, a unified risk platform; lending suite, origination, and monitoring solutions; and property, casualty, and sustainable insurance underwriting solutions. The company serves the financial, banking, insurance, corporate, public, and asset management sectors. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($440.24)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $3,043 | $3,591 | $4,237 | $5,000 | $5,900 | $6,166 | $6,443 | $6,733 | $7,036 | $7,353 |
| Present Value (PV) | $2,792 | $3,022 | $3,272 | $3,542 | $3,835 | $3,676 | $3,525 | $3,379 | $3,240 | $3,106 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
FAIR BARRIERAt the current price of $474.57, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 11.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil MCO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Moody's Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 49.5% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Moody's Corporation (MCO) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Moody's Corporation.
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