What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates in the Basic Materials sector (Specialty Chemicals) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksLYB

LYB

LyondellBasell Industries NVBasic Materials / Specialty ChemicalsINTACT

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and PolyolefinsAmericas; Olefins and PolyolefinsEurope, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; and Technology. The company produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer and acetyls. It also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and engineered composites and colors. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

Share Price

$65.15

52W: $41.58 - $83.94

DCF Fair Value

$47.94

-35.9% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20x

ROIC

13.4%

Operating Margin

17.9%

FCF Yield

5.8%

Debt / Equity

1.33x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

4.85

Market Cap

$21B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($47.94)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$47.94

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$35.96

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($47.94) 25% MOS Buy Target ($35.96)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$65.15

DCF Fair Value

$47.77

-36.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,228M

$100M$1,228M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)8.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$11,700M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$11.5B

PV of Terminal Value

$15.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$27.1B

Implied Equity Value

$15.4B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,337	$1,456	$1,586	$1,727	$1,881	$1,965	$2,054	$2,146	$2,243	$2,344
Present Value (PV)	$1,227	$1,226	$1,225	$1,224	$1,222	$1,172	$1,124	$1,077	$1,033	$990

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $-0.83BVPS: $33.04

Revised Graham Formula

N/A

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.5% Yield

$3.61 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.2BYield: 5.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

3.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $65.15, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 3.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil LYB with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for LyondellBasell Industries NV. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 17.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for LyondellBasell Industries NV.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, LyondellBasell Industries NV has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $47.94 per share compared to its current market price of $65.15. This represents an estimated 35.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.