What is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. operates in the Financials sector (Financial Data & Stock Exchanges) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksICE

ICE

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.Financial Services / Financial Data & Stock ExchangesINTACT

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution services, as well as global CDS clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology. The Mortgage Technology segment offers a technology platform that provides customers comprehensive and digital workflow tools to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the U.S. residential mortgage market life cycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Share Price

$157.50

52W: $121.79 - $176.59

DCF Fair Value

$172.07

+8.5%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

22.3x

ROIC

39.5%

Operating Margin

52.6%

FCF Yield

4.1%

Debt / Equity

0.69x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

3.18

Market Cap

$88.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($157.50 vs $172.07 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$172.07

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$129.05

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($172.07) 25% MOS Buy Target ($129.05) Revised Graham ($249.16) Graham Number ($91.47)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$157.50

DCF Fair Value

$172.30

+8.6%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,634M

$100M$3,634M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$19,400M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$47.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$69.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$116.1B

Implied Equity Value

$96.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$4,288	$5,060	$5,971	$7,046	$8,314	$8,688	$9,079	$9,487	$9,914	$10,360
Present Value (PV)	$3,934	$4,259	$4,611	$4,991	$5,403	$5,180	$4,966	$4,761	$4,565	$4,376

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-72.2% Premium

$91.48

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.06BVPS: $52.68

Revised Graham Formula+36.8% MoS

$249.16

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.9% Yield

$6.15 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $3.5BYield: 3.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

8.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $157.50, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 8.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ICE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Intercontinental Exchange Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 52.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Intercontinental Exchange Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $172.07 per share compared to its current market price of $157.50. This represents an estimated 8.5% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $91.47.