What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Integrated Freight & Logistics) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksEXPD

EXPD

Expeditors International of WasIndustrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsINTACT

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India. The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage and other services, import, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other logistics solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance consulting, cargo insurance, cargo security, and solutions. In addition, it acts as a freight consolidator or as an agent for the airline that carries the shipment. Further, the company provides ancillary services that include preparation of shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance services, and the preparation of documentation to comply with local export and import laws. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.

Share Price

$191.75

52W: $112.95 - $192.34

DCF Fair Value

$120.21

-59.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

27.9x

ROIC

Operating Margin

10.7%

FCF Yield

3.2%

Debt / Equity

0.27x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.67

Market Cap

$24.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($120.21)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$120.21

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$90.16

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($120.21) 25% MOS Buy Target ($90.16) Revised Graham ($103.91) Graham Number ($50.19)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$191.75

DCF Fair Value

$119.55

-60.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$798M

$100M$798M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$400M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$6.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$8.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$15.1B

Implied Equity Value

$15.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$840	$885	$932	$981	$1,033	$1,080	$1,128	$1,179	$1,232	$1,287
Present Value (PV)	$771	$745	$719	$695	$671	$644	$617	$592	$567	$544

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-282% Premium

$50.20

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $6.87BVPS: $16.30

Revised Graham Formula-84.5% Premium

$103.91

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3% Yield

$5.83 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.8BYield: 3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

11.5% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $191.75, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 11.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil EXPD with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Expeditors International of Was. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 10.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Expeditors International of Was (EXPD) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Expeditors International of Was.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Expeditors International of Was has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $120.21 per share compared to its current market price of $191.75. This represents an estimated 59.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $50.19.