What is Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Essex Property Trust, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Essex Property Trust, Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector (REIT - Residential) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Essex Property Trust, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Essex Property Trust, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Essex Property Trust, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksESS

ESS

Essex Property Trust, Inc.Real Estate / REIT - ResidentialINTACT

Essex Property Trust, Inc., an S&P 500 company, is a fully integrated real estate investment trust. The firm acquires, develops, redevelops, and manages multifamily residential properties in selected West Coast markets. Essex currently has ownership interests in 258 apartment communities comprising over 62,000 apartment homes with an additional property in active development. Essex Property Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 1971 in Maryland and is based in San Mateo, United States.

Share Price

$273.88

52W: $238.46 - $303.35

DCF Fair Value

$394.85

+30.6% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

42.6x

ROIC

25.5%

Operating Margin

34%

FCF Yield

5.5%

Debt / Equity

1.22x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

2.6

Market Cap

$18.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$394.85

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$296.14

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($394.85) 25% MOS Buy Target ($296.14) Revised Graham ($200.40) Graham Number ($109.47)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$273.88

DCF Fair Value

$397.73

+31.1% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,044M

$100M$1,044M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)17.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$6,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$13.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$19.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$32.1B

Implied Equity Value

$25.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,221	$1,429	$1,672	$1,956	$2,289	$2,392	$2,500	$2,612	$2,730	$2,852
Present Value (PV)	$1,121	$1,203	$1,291	$1,386	$1,488	$1,426	$1,367	$1,311	$1,257	$1,205

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-150.2% Premium

$109.47

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $6.43BVPS: $82.83

Revised Graham Formula-36.7% Premium

$200.40

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.7% Yield

$15.50 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.0BYield: 5.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

3.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $273.88, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 3.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ESS with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Essex Property Trust, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 34% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Essex Property Trust, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Essex Property Trust, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $394.85 per share compared to its current market price of $273.88. This represents an estimated 30.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $109.47.