What is Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Erie Indemnity Company's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Erie Indemnity Company operates in the Financials sector (Insurance - Property & Casualty) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Erie Indemnity Company's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Erie Indemnity Company's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Erie Indemnity Company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksERIE

ERIE

Erie Indemnity CompanyFinancial Services / Insurance BrokersINTACT

Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.

Share Price

$241.81

52W: $204.63 - $341.71

DCF Fair Value

$241.47

-0.1% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

22x

ROIC

14.3%

Operating Margin

19.1%

FCF Yield

3.8%

Debt / Equity

0.03x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.53

Market Cap

$12.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($241.47)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$241.47

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$181.10

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($241.47) 25% MOS Buy Target ($181.10) Revised Graham ($230.11) Graham Number ($108.11)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$241.81

DCF Fair Value

$241.22

-0.2% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$481M

$100M$481M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$200M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$4.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$6.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$10.9B

Implied Equity Value

$11.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$527	$577	$632	$692	$757	$791	$827	$864	$903	$944
Present Value (PV)	$483	$485	$488	$490	$492	$472	$452	$434	$416	$399

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-123.7% Premium

$108.11

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $11.01BVPS: $47.18

Revised Graham Formula-5.1% Premium

$230.11

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings4.1% Yield

$9.93 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.5BYield: 4.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

7.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $241.81, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 7.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ERIE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Erie Indemnity Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Erie Indemnity Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Erie Indemnity Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $241.47 per share compared to its current market price of $241.81. This represents an estimated 0.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $108.11.