What is Dow Inc. (DOW) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Dow Inc. (DOW) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Dow Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Dow Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector (Chemicals) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Dow Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Dow Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Dow Inc. (DOW) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Dow Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksDOW

DOW

Dow Inc.Basic Materials / ChemicalsINTACT

Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. The company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

Share Price

$29.30

52W: $20.65 - $42.74

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20x

ROIC

8.7%

Operating Margin

11.6%

FCF Yield

1.1%

Debt / Equity

1.12x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

5.11

Market Cap

$21.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$29.30

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$238M

$100M$238M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.8%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$15,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$2.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$2.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$4.6B

Implied Equity Value

$-10.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$252	$266	$282	$298	$316	$330	$345	$360	$376	$393
Present Value (PV)	$231	$224	$218	$211	$205	$197	$188	$181	$173	$166

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $-1.83BVPS: $21.96

Revised Graham Formula

N/A

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.1% Yield

$0.31 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.2BYield: 1.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

25.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $29.30, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 25.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DOW with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Dow Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 11.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Dow Inc. (DOW) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Dow Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Dow Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $29.30. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.