DE

Deere & CompanyIndustrials / Farm & Heavy Construction MachineryINTACT

Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties. Deere & Company has a strategic partnership with Tarter USA to develop and produce flex wing rotary cutters. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.

Share Price
$677.94
52W: $433 - $705.88
DCF Fair Value
$220.45
-207.5% Premium
P/E (TTM)
37.6x
ROIC
13.1%
Operating Margin
17.5%
FCF Yield
2.5%
Debt / Equity
3.76x
Piotroski Score
5/9
Altman Z-Score
3.3
Market Cap
$182.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($220.45)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$220.45
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$165.34
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$677.94
DCF Fair Value
$219.42
-209% Premium
$4,516M
$100M$4,516M (Reported)$50,000M
8.7%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$39,700M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$42.1B
PV of Terminal Value
$56.9B
Implied Enterprise Value
$98.9B
Implied Equity Value
$59.2B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$4,909$5,336$5,800$6,305$6,853$7,162$7,484$7,821$8,173$8,541
Present Value (PV)$4,504$4,491$4,479$4,466$4,454$4,270$4,094$3,925$3,763$3,608

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-230.4% Premium
$205.21

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $18.03BVPS: $103.81
Revised Graham Formula-89.9% Premium
$356.99

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings2.3% Yield
$15.89 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.3BYield: 2.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER
15.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $677.94, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 15.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Deere & Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 17.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Deere & Company (DE) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Deere & Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Deere & Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $220.45 per share compared to its current market price of $677.94. This represents an estimated 207.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $205.22.

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