What is Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Delta Air Lines, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Airlines) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksDAL

DAL

Delta Air Lines, Inc.Industrials / AirlinesINTACT

Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery. Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Salt Lake City, as well as coastal hub positions in Boston, Los Angeles, New York-LaGuardia, New York-JFK, and Seattle; and international network centered on hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, Bogota, Lima, Mexico City, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Santiago (Chile), Sao Paulo, Seoul-Incheon, and Tokyo. It also provides aircraft maintenance and engineering support, repair, and overhaul services; and vacation packages. The company operates through a fleet of approximately 1,314 aircraft. Delta Air Lines, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Share Price

$79.82

52W: $55.03 - $95.68

DCF Fair Value

$56.42

-41.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

13.2x

ROIC

Operating Margin

7.9%

FCF Yield

5.4%

Debt / Equity

0.97x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

4.41

Market Cap

$52.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($56.42)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$56.42

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$42.32

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($56.42) 25% MOS Buy Target ($42.32) Revised Graham ($91.20) Graham Number ($67.27)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$79.82

DCF Fair Value

$56.31

-41.8% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,817M

$100M$2,817M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$16,400M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$23.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$30.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$53.4B

Implied Equity Value

$37.0B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,966	$3,124	$3,289	$3,463	$3,647	$3,811	$3,983	$4,162	$4,349	$4,545
Present Value (PV)	$2,721	$2,629	$2,540	$2,454	$2,370	$2,272	$2,179	$2,089	$2,002	$1,920

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-18.7% Premium

$67.27

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $6.03BVPS: $33.35

Revised Graham Formula+12.5%

$91.20

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.1% Yield

$4.07 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.7BYield: 5.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

4.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $79.82, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 4.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DAL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Delta Air Lines, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 7.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Delta Air Lines, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Delta Air Lines, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $56.42 per share compared to its current market price of $79.82. This represents an estimated 41.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $67.27.