CSX

CSX CorporationIndustrials / RailroadsINTACT

CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It also transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, minerals, automotive, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. In addition, the company provides intermodal services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 20,000 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns 3400 locomotives. It serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

Share Price
$48.89
52W: $32.18 - $53.6
DCF Fair Value
$23.92
-104.4% Premium
P/E (TTM)
28.4x
ROIC
28.8%
Operating Margin
38.4%
FCF Yield
2.2%
Debt / Equity
1.38x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.23
Market Cap
$90.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($23.92)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$23.92
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$17.94
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$48.89
DCF Fair Value
$23.91
-104.5% Premium
$1,953M
$100M$1,953M (Reported)$50,000M
18.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$18,100M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$25.3B
PV of Terminal Value
$37.1B
Implied Enterprise Value
$62.4B
Implied Equity Value
$44.3B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$2,305$2,719$3,209$3,786$4,468$4,669$4,879$5,099$5,328$5,568
Present Value (PV)$2,114$2,289$2,478$2,682$2,904$2,784$2,669$2,559$2,453$2,352

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-185.1% Premium
$17.15

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.72BVPS: $7.60
Revised Graham Formula+16.9%
$58.81

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings2% Yield
$1.00 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.9BYield: 2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER
16.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $48.89, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 16.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CSX with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for CSX Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 38.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: CSX Corporation (CSX) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for CSX Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, CSX Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $23.92 per share compared to its current market price of $48.89. This represents an estimated 104.4% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $17.15.

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