What is CME Group Inc. (CME) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

CME Group Inc. (CME) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is CME Group Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

CME Group Inc. operates in the Financials sector (Financial Data & Stock Exchanges) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is CME Group Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

CME Group Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor CME Group Inc. (CME) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits CME Group Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCME

CME

CME Group Inc.Financial Services / Financial Data & Stock ExchangesINTACT

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. CME Group Inc. partners with FutureSports to futures on sports indexes. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price

$275.54

52W: $218.31 - $329.16

DCF Fair Value

$253.94

-8.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

23.4x

ROIC

48.8%

Operating Margin

65%

FCF Yield

2.9%

Debt / Equity

0.15x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

3.02

Market Cap

$99.1B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($253.94)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$253.94

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$190.46

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($253.94) 25% MOS Buy Target ($190.46) Revised Graham ($416.09) Graham Number ($139.93)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$275.54

DCF Fair Value

$253.62

-8.6% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,909M

$100M$2,909M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$1,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$37.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$55.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$92.9B

Implied Equity Value

$91.3B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,433	$4,050	$4,780	$5,640	$6,655	$6,955	$7,268	$7,595	$7,936	$8,293
Present Value (PV)	$3,149	$3,409	$3,691	$3,995	$4,325	$4,147	$3,976	$3,811	$3,654	$3,503

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-96.9% Premium

$139.94

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $11.79BVPS: $73.82

Revised Graham Formula+33.8% MoS

$416.09

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.8% Yield

$7.68 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.8BYield: 2.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

12.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $275.54, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 12.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CME with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for CME Group Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 65% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: CME Group Inc. (CME) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for CME Group Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, CME Group Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $253.94 per share compared to its current market price of $275.54. This represents an estimated 8.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $139.93.