What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector (Agricultural Inputs) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCF

CF

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.Basic Materials / Agricultural InputsINTACT

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

Share Price

$133.42

52W: $75.42 - $141.96

DCF Fair Value

$262.00

+49.1% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

9.9x

ROIC

37%

Operating Margin

49.3%

FCF Yield

6.3%

Debt / Equity

0.41x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

4.26

Market Cap

$20.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$262.00

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$196.50

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($262.00) 25% MOS Buy Target ($196.50) Revised Graham ($475.73) Graham Number ($107.24)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$133.42

DCF Fair Value

$262.80

+49.2% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,277M

$100M$1,277M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$1,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$16.5B

PV of Terminal Value

$24.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$40.8B

Implied Equity Value

$39.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,507	$1,778	$2,098	$2,476	$2,921	$3,053	$3,190	$3,334	$3,484	$3,641
Present Value (PV)	$1,382	$1,497	$1,620	$1,754	$1,899	$1,820	$1,745	$1,673	$1,604	$1,538

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-24.4% Premium

$107.24

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $13.48BVPS: $37.92

Revised Graham Formula+72% MoS

$475.73

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6% Yield

$8.03 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.2BYield: 6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

2.5% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $133.42, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 2.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CF with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for CF Industries Holdings, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 49.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for CF Industries Holdings, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $262.00 per share compared to its current market price of $133.42. This represents an estimated 49.1% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $107.24.