StocksBLDR

BLDR

Builders FirstSource, Inc.Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentINTACT

Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials for professional builders in new residential construction and repair, and remodeling in the United States. It offers manufactured products, such as factory-built substitutes for job-site framing, wood floor and roof trusses, wall panels, and engineered wood; Ready-Frame, a whole house framing solution; manufactured and semi-custom modular homes, and built in a temperature-controlled facility under its Pine Grove Homes and Pleasant Valley Homes brand names; manufactured housing plans including ranch, community, and single-section homes; manufacturing, assembly, and distribution of windows; and the assembly and distribution of interior and exterior door units. The company also provides millwork, including interior trim and custom features under the Synboard brand name; specialty building products and services comprising vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trim, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboard, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation of products. In addition, it offers drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders; dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products used in on-site house framing. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.

Share Price
$60.69
52W: $58.13 - $145.68
DCF Fair Value
$34.04
-78.3% Premium
P/E (TTM)
66x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
3.3%
FCF Yield
7.1%
Debt / Equity
1.31x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
4.64
Market Cap
$6.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($34.04)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$34.04
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$25.53
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$60.69
DCF Fair Value
$34.47
-76.1% Premium
$465M
$100M$465M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$5,100M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$3.8B
PV of Terminal Value
$5.0B
Implied Enterprise Value
$8.8B
Implied Equity Value
$3.7B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$490$516$543$572$602$629$657$687$718$750
Present Value (PV)$449$434$419$405$391$375$360$345$331$317

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-118.6% Premium
$27.76

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $0.92BVPS: $37.23
Revised Graham Formula-336% Premium
$13.92

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings6.7% Yield
$4.09 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.4BYield: 6.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER
1.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $60.69, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 1.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil BLDR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Builders FirstSource, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 3.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Builders FirstSource, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Builders FirstSource, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $34.04 per share compared to its current market price of $60.69. This represents an estimated 78.3% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $27.76.

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