What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. operates in the Financials sector (Insurance Brokers) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAJG

AJG

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.Financial Services / Insurance BrokersINTACT

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments. Its Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated brokers in the placement of specialized and hard-to-place insurance; and acts as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter for distributing specialized insurance coverages to underwriting enterprises. This segment performs activities, including marketing, underwriting, issuing policies, collecting premiums, appointing and supervising other agents, paying claims, and negotiating reinsurance; and offers services in the areas of insurance and reinsurance placement, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement and administration services; and claims management, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company offers its services through a network of correspondent brokers and consultants. It serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit entities, as well as underwriting enterprises. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.

Share Price

$242.51

52W: $190.75 - $313.55

DCF Fair Value

$135.13

-79.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

40.2x

ROIC

14.4%

Operating Margin

19.2%

FCF Yield

3.3%

Debt / Equity

0.59x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.28

Market Cap

$62.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($135.13)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$135.13

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$101.35

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($135.13) 25% MOS Buy Target ($101.35) Revised Graham ($126.58) Graham Number ($112.05)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$242.51

DCF Fair Value

$135.39

-79.1% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,082M

$100M$2,082M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.6%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$12,700M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$20.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$27.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$47.4B

Implied Equity Value

$34.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,282	$2,501	$2,741	$3,004	$3,293	$3,441	$3,596	$3,757	$3,926	$4,103
Present Value (PV)	$2,093	$2,105	$2,117	$2,128	$2,140	$2,052	$1,967	$1,886	$1,808	$1,733

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-116.4% Premium

$112.05

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $6.03BVPS: $92.54

Revised Graham Formula-91.6% Premium

$126.58

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.2% Yield

$7.73 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.0BYield: 3.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

10.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $242.51, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 10.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AJG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track AJG & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $135.13 per share compared to its current market price of $242.51. This represents an estimated 79.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $112.05.