AFL
AFLAC IncorporatedFinancial Services / Insurance - LifeINTACTAflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S. segment provides accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance products in the United States. The company also provides hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, supplemental dental and vision, short-term disability, and absence management insurance products, as well as cafeteria plans. It sells its products to individuals, families, and business owners through individual, independent corporate, and affiliated corporate agencies; banks; independent associates/career agents; and brokers. Aflac Incorporated was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $5,817 | $6,567 | $7,414 | $8,371 | $9,450 | $9,876 | $10,320 | $10,784 | $11,270 | $11,777 |
| Present Value (PV) | $5,336 | $5,527 | $5,725 | $5,930 | $6,142 | $5,888 | $5,645 | $5,412 | $5,189 | $4,975 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
EXTREMELY LOW BARRIERAt the current price of $115.28, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -2.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil AFL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for AFLAC Incorporated. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 25.7% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for AFLAC Incorporated.
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